Double Bubble

clipped from www.ft.com But Crispin Odey, one of London’s most respected hedge fund managers, was seeing things differently. He chose Wednesday, the day of the Fed’s pronouncement, to ruminate, both in a note to clients and in the Financial Times, that the rally was “entering a bubble phase”. The word “bubble” is highly emotive but Mr Odey could justify it. He argued that markets were being distorted by governments’ deliberate attempts to push down the price of money by buying bonds, a policy known as quantitative easing. “At some point the quantitative easing will have to come to an end,” he said, “but, until it does, this bull market is sponsored by [Her Majesty’s Government] and everyone should enjoy it.” The 2003 bounce came when stocks were not cheap – they traded at a multiple to cyclical earnings of about 21, according to Prof Shiller, when at the bottom of previous bear markets this multiple had fallen below 6. So it looks as though cheap money stopped markets taking all the medicine they needed.