"He would be hilarious if he weren't such a psychopath."

Lewis the Doyen has his problems -- but it's amusing to see how unsatisfying he is to the "intellectual" class. This one only fails the classics cut off because he barely missed an explicit reference to Amin Al-Husseini. But he didn't fail here.

Michelle has today's example of why I read Strategy Page instead of the totalitarian apologists of the MSM.

About Those Iraqi Tribalists

Strategy Page has a nice update on the role of tribalism in Iraq along with a casualty update and even some historical perspective on the U.S.:

June 2, 2006: American troops are going to Anbar province in support of an
Iraqi operation that is going to try and seal Baghdad off from the Anbar towns
that still harbor terrorists (who send suicide bombers into Iraq.) At the same
time, police have arrested several senior al Qaeda leaders in the last week,
including Hamza Khair al-Aini and Samir al-Batawi. Interrogations of these two
have already led to raids on more terrorist locations.

While attacks in
Iraq are at their highest levels, American casualties continue to fall. Total
American casualties per month are down a third versus last year, even though
attacks are up about ten percent over 2005 (to about 85 a day). Americans have
improved their weapons, tactics and equipment much more rapidly, and
effectively, than has the enemy. People are shooting at U.S. troops more often,
but to less effect. Moreover, the quality of enemy fighters has declined, as the
more capable men, often former security men with long experience working for
Saddam, have either been killed, or, more commonly, fled the country. The big
change in the past year has been the massive movement of American and Iraqi
forces into largely Sunni Arab areas of central Iraq. Many of these towns have
not been under any government control since Saddam was overthrown in 2003. Now
the government is there, in force, and the former Saddam gunmen don't like it.
There has been a lot more shooting, but the Sunni Arabs continue to lose. This
is especially painful because many of the troops are Kurds or Shia Arabs, people
Sunni Arabs, from this part of Iraq, have long despised. It gets pretty ugly at
times, and many Sunni Arabs have come to see American troops as their
protectors, as the U.S. soldiers and marines are more disciplined and less
trigger happy than their Iraqi counterparts.

When an Iraqi says, "I am
an Iraqi," it has a different meaning from an American saying, "I am an
American." Kurds and Shia Arabs, like the Sunni Arabs, also have divided
loyalties. Family, tribe and religion come first, before national loyalty, in
Iraq. This is a problem throughout the developing world, and a major reason why
democracy is so difficult to establish. These divided loyalties shift gradually.
The U.S. became a powerful democracy partly because its citizens were all
immigrants, who had cut competing ties. Thus saying, "I am an American" is a
pledge of loyalty to all other Americans that is easier for a new immigrant,
looking for support in a new land, to make. An Iraqi saying, "I am Iraqi" is
much more likely to have a lot of other competing loyalties. Ask an Iraqi what
tribe or clan he belongs to, and he will tell you, often with a tone of pride.
Ask an American the same question, and most often you will bet a blank stare.

Iraqis know that they have to develop a national loyalty to go with
their national identity, because without it, Iraq will always be torn by
disorder and feuds. Many Iraqis also know that such an identity is not alien to
the region. Iranians and Turks have had such a national identity for centuries.
So also do people like the Egyptians. Tribalism and sectarianism are not eternal
curses. The people in question have to decide which loyalty, in the end, is more
important. This is a struggle that gets hardly any media attention at all, but
is at the heart of the current violence in Iraq. The war won't be over until
most Iraqis agree to become Iraqis.

Power Line has an idiotarian innumeracy update. My baseline post on idiotarian innumeracy is here and I am overdue for an update. Watch this space...

Has our latest Chamberlain redux bought us some Sino-Soviet backing in our Iranian fiasco? Or just hastened the Tinfoil Apocalypse? Somehow I suspect we'll find the goalposts moved again when next we look up. Call me a cynic realist.

The world according to Hitch...

TODAY'S EURABIA REPORT: "We in America should take note of the looming end of this once seemingly endless summer. We've been there, done that with this beloved continent all too many times before."

LEDEEN FISKS THE HOJJATIEH-IN-CHIEF: "The Spiegel journalist doesn’t have the wit to ask Ahmadinejad why jihadis like him base their actions on events that took place centuries ago, and then have the chutzpah to condemn the Germans for feeling guilt about the actions of their parents."

More Bananas

"If leaders of either party believe that the American electorate would stand for such an assertion of privilege, then they have overstayed their term on Capitol Hill and left rationality and common sense behind. They had better start understanding that subpoenas approved by judges apply to all citizens, and that when the respondent refuses to cooperate with a subpoena, law enforcement will apply it nonetheless."

You Say Banana, I Say Bananas

"Meanwhile, Sen. John McCain, Arizona Republican, in a quintessentially McCainiac contribution to the debate, angrily denied the Senate legislation was an "amnesty." "Call it a banana if you want to," he told his fellow world's greatest deliberators. "To call the process that we require under this legislation amnesty frankly distorts the debate and it's an unfair interpretation of it."

He has a point. Technically, an "amnesty" only involves pardoning a person for a crime rather than, as this moderate compromise legislation does, pardoning him for a crime and also giving him a cash bonus for committing it. In fact, having skimmed my Webster's, I can't seem to find a word that does cover what the Senate is proposing, it having never previously occurred to any other society in the course of human history. Whether or not, as Mr. McCain says, we should call it a singular banana, it's certainly plural bananas."

Today's Tinfoil Update

"In the telephone survey of 1200 individuals, just 47% agreed that "the 9/11 attacks were thoroughly investigated and that any speculation about US government involvement is nonsense." Almost as many, 45%, indicated they were more likely to agree "that so many unanswered questions about 9/11 remain that Congress or an International Tribunal should re-investigate the attacks, including whether any US government officials consciously allowed or helped facilitate their success."

I can take little comfort that the sane ones are in the plurality. It isn't even a majority. Ugh.

Did I forget to mention that the DemoPublicans seem to think they're above the laws they write?

About Those Long Range Iranian Missiles...

And what they lead to:

He looked his son in the eye and said:

“ A couple of years ago you asked me why it is that we fight, and I told you then that we fight to hold off the bigger war that will surely be if were to stand by and “do nothing”. Back then; we believed that had we done more to stop Hitler in the 1930’s that the world might not have seen 52 million dead, the Jewish holocaust and the use of atomic bombs. We believed that the lesson to be learned from that time was that if we fought tyranny early, at a time and place of our choosing, we could have avoided a bigger more destructive war that came later. In our time, like it or not, the war we tried to avoid was coming - not because we wanted it, but because like Hitler before them, the islamists needed the war in order to survive. Well my son, I’m sorry to say that we were too late. We waited too long to fight back, and now the war we hoped to avoid is here and I’m afraid that before it is over it wont be millions who die, but billions. The world that was is no longer, and we no longer fight to avoid one political situation or another, we fight only to survive. I’m sorry that we failed. I’m sorry that I failed you”.

And the Tranzis would have you believe that those long range Iranian missiles are their right along with "nuclear power". Everyone knows that long range missiles are an excellent investment to deliver conventional warheads. Saddam knew it too which is why he also was feverishly trying to buy them before the war...

The response W should have written to the prince of Hojjatieh...

Well don't count on this ever happening again, but I appear to be in agreement with my race-baitin' buddy ol' Al Sharpton today. Yet more proof about that stopped clock theory...

With or without the yellow star, they're just debating the details of what is indisputably a totalitarian death cult. And given our own insane fecklessness, it's once again become the late 30's. Only the death toll will be much higher this time...

LEWIS REMEMBERS WELL: "The most vividly remembered year of my life was the year 1940. And more recently I have been thinking of 1938 rather than of 1940. We seem to be in the mode of Chamberlain and Munich rather than of Churchill."

Something Hojjatieh comes this way...

Did I Forget To Mention My Favorite Hojjatieh?

Well, Robert Ferrigno has my back covered:

Our present predicament with Iran revolves around the Twelfth Imam, or Hidden Imam, believed by Shiite Muslims to be the last in the line of spiritual/political rulers. The Twelfth Imam, Muhammad al-Mahdi, ascended to his position upon the death of his father, the Eleventh Imam, in 874 AD. Al-Madha at that time was five years old. Shortly after the funeral of his father, al-Mahdi disappeared, believed by Shiites to have been hidden by Allah until his return at some future point. The easiest way for westerners to think of the Hidden Imam is as the Islamic Messiah, Except the Islamic Messiah is to come at the hour of greatest peril for Muslims, come to battle the forces of evil and unite the entire world in an Islamic Caliphate.

Okay, let’s call it a difference of opinion. Armageddon under any other name… However, Ahmadinejad belongs to a small sect of Shiites, called Hojjatieh, who believe that they can hasten the arrival of the Hidden Imam.. Even more threatening for the west, the Hojjatieh believe that it is chaos that will induce the Hidden Imam to reveal himself. They have a spiritual investment in destruction. The worse things get — the worse believers can make things get — the more likely it is for the Hidden Imam to return. None of which would matter much except that Ahmadinejad is adamant about the right of Iran to develop its own nuclear program.

When Khomeini took power after the revolution in 1979, he banned the group, since they opposed the creation of an Islamic state, believing that the peace and tranquility of the new Iran would delay the reappearance of the Twelfth Imam. Hardliners among the Hojjatieh actually consider that Khomeini and the mullahs hijacked the Islamic revolution by limiting it to Iran. The emergence of Ahmadinejad to a position of power under the auspices of these very mullahs suggests to me that they think they can control him, use him as a figurehead to maintain the support of the people. The mullahs too may have underestimated Ahmadinejad.

We have to ask ourselves, how does Ahmadinejad see himself? Shiites believe that there will be no doubt as to the identity of the hidden imam when he returns. it will clearly be him. Some Shiites believe that the Twelfth Imam will rule through a deputy. Or that this deputy will precede his reappearance and actually hasten the arrival. Get the picture?

As to the letter, I think we have to consider it having several functions. Yes, it’s addressed to Bush and was supposed to be “private”, but it was clearly meant for a large audience. The thrust of it is ostensibly a call to Islam and a recitation of the hypocrisies and wounds the west has inflicted on the world. Some have noted that this is in the tradition of Khomeini and bin Laden in following the Koranic teaching of offering ones enemy a final chance to convert before waging war. This may be one of its functions, but I think the main function is to present Ahmadinejad as the deputy of the Hidden Imam.

The unemployment rate myth.

"Ask the dead how funny these men are."

Being There at the infallible BBC...

"Liberal hypocrisy--there is really nothing quite like it!"

Who knew? Chutch the sock puppet wizard!

Outrage Of The Day

"Well, obviously, this is a complete outrage. Next thing you know, the government will require me to tell it: what I do for a living; exactly how much I make; where I live; what stocks I buy and sell, and for how much; what I pay in property taxes; and how much profit I make on my investments. If we just sit still like sheep, we’ll end up having to disclose our birthdates — and, God help us, even our Social Security numbers. If that ever comes to pass, you’ll know that we are truly living in the reincarnation of Nazi Germany.

Now, if you’ll excuse me, I have to go do my taxes."

Robert Godwin on envy, paranoia and United 93.

Did I forget to mention that Gramscian Damage?

Gelernter on the lies of Vietnam ... and how to apply them to Iraq.

The Left on Dots: Collectionless Connections Required

LILEKS: "They want us to connect the dots, but they do not want us to collect the dots. The dots should apparently just walk up and volunteer, here I am. I'm a dot. And that's the extent of the War On Terror."

But don't you worry, they're not on the other side of course...

UPDATE and BUMP: Steyn's take on Leahy: "No. But next time he's flying from D.C. to Burlington, Vt., on a Friday afternoon he might look at the security line: Tens of millions of Americans are having to take their coats and shoes off! Are you telling me that tens of millions of ordinary shoe-wearing Americans are involved with al-Qaida?"

STEYN: "I've noticed in the last few years that, if you pull any old minor 19th-century memoir off the shelf, the en passant observations about Islam seem more informed than most of the allegedly expert commentary that appeared in the year after 9/11."

And Ethanol less so?

Hydrogen may be more interesting than I previously thought thanks to Honda...

NYeT! Don't Diss My Man Z!

NYeT explains why you have lyin' eyes about the Zarkman. All I can say to this gobsmacker is that the left has moved the goalposts completely off the field while we weren't looking. There is absolutely nothing that can be done by an American anymore that they could be convicted of treason. The press is part of the "international" and therefore exempt from quaint American laws anyway.

Oh. Except I forgot that I will probably be thrown in the clink soon for calling leftists "Un-American". That will be the "new" treason.

As I've noted before, Orwell has been sucked down his own memory hole. For instance, I'll bet you've never read this have you?

Pacifism is objectively pro-Fascist. This is elementary common sense. If
you hamper the war effort of one side you automatically help that of the other.
Nor is there any real way of remaining outside such a war as the present one. In
practice, ‘he that is not with me is against me’. The idea that you can somehow remain aloof from and superior to the struggle, while living on food which British sailors have to risk their lives to bring you, is a bourgeois illusion bred of money and security.

Yes, that would be Eric Blair speaking. Sounds a lot like W doesn't it?

Memory hole? What memory hole?

Allies

Did I forget to mention that the Muslims have been Nazi allies from the git-go?

“Most important for the sympathies which Arabs now feel
towards Germany is their admiration for our Fuhrer, especially
during the unrests, I often had an opportunity to see how far these sympathies
extend. When faced with a dangerous behaviour of an Arab mass, when one
said that one was German, this was already generally a free
pass.”

It's no accident that "Mein Kampf" is to this day a best seller in the Islamic Middle East...

The Zombie Sorel

Lee Harris provides a useful companion piece to "The Mystery of Fascism" (in the classics links) titled "Why Isn't Socialism Dead?". How about that zombie ghost of George Sorel? Read it and weep.

The Project. You won't hear about it in the EneMedia...

"Years ago, while with Mangyan tribesmen I concluded that these hill people could read an alphabet unknown to me. The foliage, sounds, the shift in airs, scents -- all of these -- spoke to them as directly as words in a book, though I scarcely imagined how. Later I discovered that psychologist Julian Jaynes had advanced the theory of the bicameral mind, which helped explain what I'd seen."

"The passengers, then, could take care of feeding the dog. They could feed him the carcass of the frightened and disoriented terrorist once he runs from the cockpit shouting, "Allahu Akbar min kulli shay! Can anybody fly this thing?""

Ruthlessness Deferred

“At least understand that such decency goes away quickly when you are burying your children and your grandchildren,” rasped the Time Traveler. “Or watching them suffer in slavery. Ruthlessness deferred against totalitarian aggression only makes the later need for ruthlessness more terrible. Thousands of years of history and war should have taught you that. Did you fools learn nothing from living through the charnel house that was the 20th Century?”

AP: "Historians say about 6 million Jews were slaughtered by the Nazis" ?????? !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Would that be the Jew historians that eat Arab babies for breakfast, AP? Is that what you meant to say but didn't quite slip and say it? AP = All Propaganda (all the time any more)

THE BRITISH OF CHAMBERLAIN: "The fault was not decadence but the desire for holiness, the belief in sacrifice, and a willingness to serve as the butchered victim acceptable to God."

"Which is why I find it baffling that some have gone so far as to suggest that Iran poses no threat to the US whatsoever—unless, that is, the US tries to stop Iran from finishing its nuclear weapons program. Under this description, though, the international community’s fear of a nuclear armed Iran can only be assuaged by allowing Iran to become nuclear armed. Because any attempt to stop them makes them more dangerous than they otherwise would be should they, er, become nuclear armed. Which is what the international community believes will make them dangerous to begin with.

I know—the mind reels. "

The killing of Atwar Bahjat. And if you don't think this is evil then I can't possibly imagine how you can look at yourself in the mirror each morning. (HT Power Line)

UPDATE: Michelle says the video isn't Atwar after all. Turns out to be just your average everyday beheading instead. Ho hum...

Vanderleun Rocks on the Moussaoui Verdict

"DEAR ISLAM,
Yes, it's true. We thirst for death. We would like you, at your earliest opportunity, to expunge our guilt by slaughtering us wholesale. We have so much while you, the petulant children of a whacked-out god, oppressed by your own ratty cultures and fascist governments and unable to contribute anything to civilization for over 500 years, have so little except your "trauma" that it is only fair that you get to incinerate more of us at will. ... "

Needless to say, RTWT...

"This is an implacable hatred which cannot be appeased, cannot be reasoned with, cannot be forestalled."

A Beamer speaks.

What double standard? And why are there 128 of you?

"As for the rest of us, the lesson probably hasn't sunk in yet."

"Denial is a river in ... "

"I am waiting for someone to call for the resignations of the Australian and New Zealand Defense Ministers. But joking aside, sounds eerie, doesn't it?"

"So we have a Democratic Party activist violating federal law by leaking classified information to an antiwar activist on the payroll of the Washington Post, which publishes the criminal leak and is awarded a prize by the left-wing Pulitzer committee."

OSAMA: Umm, OK then ... maybe that didn't work so well, so ... we'll fight them where they aren't!

"Catching yourself on fire because you're a terrorist asshole: PRICELESS."

"In regions sufficiently close to the political event horizon truth and facts simply cease to exist."

She was appointed by Sandy Berger? Isn't it interesting how life all seems to make sense some days? Ed thinks it was a sting...

It turns out that the common conservative pejorative "LA Slimes" turns out to be even more literally true than anyone thought. Even I have become impressed with this little saga...

"Alas, people here forget how wonderful a luxury that is."

Found It At Last

I had been looking around for the best pithy leftist tirade I could find on Chimpy McBushy. At long last I think I have found it:

First, he incites war, then falsifies the causes, then odiously wraps himself in a cloak of Christian hypocrisy, and slowly but surely leads mankind to war, not without calling God to witness the honesty of his attack.

Really, I think most leftists and even a lot of folks who consider themselves liberals would agree that this is really right on target. I may be off base here of course, but I think this would "taste test" extremely well with the Democratic party stalwarts -- not to mention Europeans given their, ah, lack of sympathy for Christianity.

Why have I been looking for this? Well, being the energetic debater that I am, I need something concise that I can give a good Fisking to. I've had a good Fisking needing to get out for a while now.

So here goes the Fisking:

This was a direct quote from Hitler about FDR.

I think I'm done now. Quite sure in fact.

And my regards to No Pasaran and Erik Svane for making it all so effortless...

Those nutty Germans seem to think there was a HOLOCAUST or something? What do they know anyway?

"Surely the NYeT wouldn't _stoop to something like that."

" “[T]hat is one field in which I am an expert,” Bukovsky (who spent twelve years in Soviet labor camps) says, “I know how Gulags spring up.” "

Surely I didn't forget to mention that Bruce Bawer thinks there may be just a wee bit of a Crisis In Europe Erabia ?

You say you're for women's rights? And you didn't even know about this? Well, maybe not so much...

I seem to be a tad late noticing Eric's gloves coming off...

The Committee Of Walter Duranty's Ghost

"When Walter Duranty won a Pulitzer Prize for the Times in connection with his mendacious coverage of Stalin's Soviet Union, he performed valuable public relations work for a mass murderer. He nevertheless did no direct harm to the United States. Today's Pulitzer Prize award to the Times brings a new shame to the Pulitzer Prize committee that builds on its disgrace last year via the award to the AP."

I would disagree that Duranty did no direct harm to the United States. But clearly his ghost and various flavors of current earthly minions have the ghosts of Goebbels, Gramsci and Munzenberg all beaming with pride.

Ummmm... Where is Kfar Kana again?

Remember the Kurds. The MSM dearly hopes you'll forget. It would make a hash out of their risibly puerile story line...

ORWELL. GRAVE. ROLLING. OVER: Jeff's post on the latest from Eurabia rocks. And talk about inspiring the troops: how about “spiritual multi-virgin instantiation device.”

Steyn: He Hasn't Got A Bomb...

"You know what's great fun to do if you're on, say, a flight from Chicago to New York and you're getting a little bored? Why not play being President Ahmadinejad? Stand up and yell in a loud voice, "I've got a bomb!" Next thing you know the air marshal will be telling people, "It's OK, folks. Nothing to worry about. He hasn't got a bomb." And then the second marshal would say, "And even if he did have a bomb it's highly unlikely he'd ever use it." And then you threaten to kill the two Jews in row 12 and the stewardess says, "Relax, everyone. That's just a harmless rhetorical flourish." And then a group of passengers in rows 4 to 7 point out, "Yes, but it's entirely reasonable of him to have a bomb given the threatening behavior of the marshals and the cabin crew."

That's how it goes with the Iranians. The more they claim they've gone nuclear, the more U.S. intelligence experts -- oops, where are my quote marks? -- the more U.S. intelligence "experts" insist no, no, it won't be for another 10 years yet. The more they conclusively demonstrate their non-compliance with the IAEA, the more the international community warns sternly that, if it were proved that Iran were in non-compliance, that could have very grave consequences. But, fortunately, no matter how thoroughly the Iranians non-comply it's never quite non-compliant enough to rise to the level of grave consequences. You can't blame Ahmadinejad for thinking "our enemies cannot do a damned thing." "

"This week Teheran threw down the gauntlet. The greatest battle of this war - the battle to prevent the world's most dangerous regime from attaining the most dangerous weapons known to man - has begun. The moment has arrived for President George W. Bush to make clear if he is, in the final analysis, the leader of the free world or its undertaker."

HAPPY EASTER!

Oriana Fallaci Has Enrolled in the Society of Jesus!

What an intelligent left would look like. Kudos to Norm. Unfortunately, he and his buddies are nowhere near being representative. Ed has the best take today on what drivel the left has actually devolved to...

Prelude To The Promised Innumeracy Update

"In the last six months, the U.S. Army is seeing 15 percent more soldiers re-enlist than expected. This continues a trend that began in 2001. Every year since then, the rate at which existing soldiers have re-enlisted has increased. This despite the fact that 69 percent of the troops killed in Iraq have been from the army. New recruits continue to exceed join up at higher rates as well.

All this is extremely important, especially when there is a war going on. Experience saves lives in combat, and more of the most experienced troops are staying in. This means that, a decade from now, the army will have a large and experienced corps of senior NCOs. That, in turn, means the younger troops are likely to well trained and led.

The army makes a big thing, internally, about the number of troops re-enlisting, especially within combat units that are in Iraq or Afghanistan. Pictures of mass re-enlistments are published in military media, but the civilian media has generally ignored this phenomena. Also ignored, except by some local media interviewing locals who are in the army, is the positive attitude of the troops, especially those in combat units. The large number of re-enlistments occur because the troops believe they are making a difference, and winning. This is especially true for soldiers who have come back to Iraq on a second tour, and noted the improvements since the first tour. "

A Pope with courage and moral fortitude.

Russia -- The Idiot Stepchild of Europe

"Stalin was shocked, shocked! when Hitler invaded Russia. Putin will be shocked, shocked! when the Mad Malluahs no longer find them uselful and one of the Russian supplied nuclear missiles are zooming into Russian airspace. "

GODWIN'S LAW OBSOLETED: "So where do we go when discussing him? Some other comparison or end point like Satan?"

RUSSIA AGAIN: "I wonder how much help they'll be with Iran?"

"How can they possibly think that?"

The wages of retreat: "We fight them there, or they fight us here."
Sidenote: "It is worth remembering that there were giants in those days."

IRAN: "... days instead of months."

"The truth may set you free, but first you must have truth."

TODAY'S BUTTON: "Some People Are Married To Norwegians And Still Go On To Lead Normal Lives"

Steyn again: "A quarter-century ago, there was a minor British pop hit called “Ayatollah, Don’t Khomeini Closer.” If you’re a U.S. diplomat or a British novelist, a Croat Christian or an Argentine Jew, he’s already come way too close. How much closer do you want him to get?" READ. IT. ALL.

The Captain And Me: Peas In A Pod

The Captain wonders why his little ditty closing the case on Saddam = terrorism doesn't seem to fit the MSM story line and get picked up. Kind of like I wonder why this little mathematical exercise of mine doesn't. I'll give him credit that his fish is bigger -- if the Lefties were interested in rational analysis rather than 24/7 emoting. Then again, I think I face a similar problem.



Sigh.

"But since Kerry raised it, let me ask: What hadith of the Prophet influenced him the most, and why? And here I have a personal interest: Which of the injunctions of Leviticus and who among the Prophets have the most meaning for him? Ordinarily, of course, I wouldn't ask such personal questions of a politician. In the spirit of Jesus, Kerry will certainly forgive me for doing so." (HT Power Line)

"Tough Times for Terrorists" ... but corruption remains the real problem of course...

"So in the MSM, the liberals' false leaks are noble, while the administration's declassification of the report that shows them to be false, in response, is a scandal!"

Wretchard's take on the latest casualty picture and Baghdad's burning newstands: "... not the hunter but the hare."

On Idiotarian Innumeracy

UPDATE AND BUMP: Dean Esmay has his take on the phases of the Iraq war and the myth that casualties are "trending massively upward". And I have an update in the works on a more detailed breakdown of death rates that's looking VERY eeenteresting...

In "On Connecting Ugly Virgins and Innumeracy" last September, I pointed out what simpletons everyone is for letting the EneMedia brainwash us about how "disastrous" and "unsustainable" our casualties in Iraq are when the reality is that the total Military deaths we are now incurring including Iraq and Afghanistan is at worst roughly twice that of just operating a Military at all ... in peacetime!

I pointed out that it's frankly stunning that we are doing this well given the bloodthirsty nutcases we are tangling with.

I also pointed out that just having a Military at all is a dangerous thing for the soldiers. Well, while that may be true in the worst war scenarios, it turns out that I (brace yourself) was wrong about the the risk level of being in the military!

I was swallowing more EneMedia bile without researching it. Shame on me. So let's do some slicing and dicing and see what the REAL NUMBERS say.

What recently got my attention was Robin Burke's dissing of Proud Kaffir's attempt at a deconstruction of EneMedia despair mongering that included this chart:



Robin takes P.F. to the woodshed for not taking into account the declining size of the military.

I looked at this rather differently than Robin though. I looked at it with a big AHA about my own laziness last fall for not taking things to the level of this chart -- and beyond. So let's go where nobody seems to have gotten out their spreadsheets to go until now.

First, notice that it does nearly exactly illustrate my point about the war currently running at 2X of peacetime military casualties.

But what if we looked at per capita death rates in the context of the "big picture"? What's the big picture? Why that would be the death rates for the entire U.S. populace of course.

And what would they be?

Let's look at this "enhanced" version of the WoC chart:


I'll let you scrape your jaw up off the floor before I continue ... ... ... ... ...

That's right, the short answer is that even with the war on, it's actually SUBSTANTIALLY safer on an age adjusted basis to be in the U.S. Military than in the civilian population! And even if the entire military consisted of those aged 15 - 24 (the age group with the lowest mortality rate [mostly] eligible for service), being in the military would raise your yearly risk of death by at most 22%: from 0.09% to 0.11%!

That's rounding error around one-tenth of one percent!

And even if all military combat deaths occurred in Iraq -- which they don't of course -- and we counted the death rate against only the military population actually in Iraq we would be talking about roughly 0.5 deaths per 100 soldiers located in Iraq per year at current force levels. (Which is lower than than the death rate for the U.S. population as a whole -- but that's an unfair comparison as I note in the sources section below.)

And here's the real belly laugh: With no war in progress just before 9/11, the entire military -- including the oldsters who die off faster(!) -- suffered a death rate just 56% of the overall U.S. population's 15-24 age group!

So if the left actually cared about saving lives instead of crying crocodile tears, they would actually be herding young people into the military in droves -- war or no war.

And while every death matters, the overall death toll from the WoT is amazingly small when put in perspective of previous wars.



And how about our "betters" in the EneMedia giving us this incredibly innumerate story line as if it were Gospel, huh? Great? Gullible?

Or Goebbels-like?

You decide.

Sources:
CDC Death Rates
Military Age Distribution (page 24)
(Oh, and by the way the death rate for the entire U.S. population in 2003 was 832.7 per 100K -- WAY higher than anything I'm using here. If I was playing fast and loose I would have tried to foist that on you. I'm not.)
Another inspiration: Wretchard's Damned Lies and Statistics of course.

UPDATE: Added a link to a larger version of the spreadsheet. And para 15 should start with "And even if all military combat deaths occurred in Iraq" of course and has been corrected.

Brother Michael says to pray we are Prey.

"Still, for all the bungling in the dark the FBI has nothing to fear, not from a complicit Bush administration, not from a prostrate Congress, not from a bamboozled public. An e-mail sent to Agent Harry Samit on September 10, 2001 from a CIA Counterterrorism Center official identified only as "Cathy" points the way: "God help us all if the next terrorist attacks involves this same type of plane.""

"HARRY: And who doesn't, Nancy? Every Monday night at 9 on Fox, we see how a strong spy force is vital for protecting America from suprise biological attacks by conniving White House insiders. That's why I have directed former ambassador Joseph Wilson to form a new super top secret spy agency, to monitor communications between terrorist groups and Dick Cheney."

"The real question is, will Gen. Abizaid and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld do theirs?"

"No turmoil, then; just Iranian nukes."

"This has the effect of deleting morality entirely. So Yale is left with no way to tell good from evil, and I am left with Hashemi in my dining hall."

"Teheran must have spent this afternoon laughing up its collective sleeve. As Saddam did in the last years of his regime, the mullahs have spent their oil money wisely to capture at least one and probably two of the five vetoes on the UNSC. There will be no further progress on this matter, at least not at the UN, while we allow Russia to run interference for Iran long enough for them to develop working prototypes of nuclear weapons. "

“Power for me means that the Swedes shall look at me, lie down on the ground and kiss my feet.”

UPDATE: Did I forget to mention that there isn't much there there anyway? (HT Q&O)

"Sir, where was the Nuclear material transported to?"