Tuesday, January 12, 2010

14%

News reports say that the big banks are not making loans. This is not true. They are lending to the Federal government. They are doing this, not only buy buying government bonds directly, but by parking their reserves (which have increased by more than $1 trillion since the economic crisis hit) at the Federal Reserve, which is paying above-market interest on them. This allowed the Fed to buy $900 billion of mortgage-backed securities from entities like PIMCO, who turned around and bought-you guessed it-government bonds.

At the same time that it extracts capital from business, the "stimulus" bond sales are squeezing jobs out of the private sector. Unfortunately, most of the policy actions being considered to "create jobs" involve doing more of this.

If we don't change course, get ready for (the equivalent of) 14% unemployment.