Luttwak doesn't seem to believe in the Hojjatieh. I certainly hope he's right. But my hope is an inch deep...

"Much is at stake in the current crisis: Israel’s security; Lebanon’s viability as a nation; the future roles of Hamas and Hezbollah; America’s ability to function as an effective power in the Middle East; and more still. There are dangers on every side. But, fortunately, the outbreak of a regional war is not one of them."