Sunday, September 10, 2006

Fermi, Sagan and the Tinfoil Apocalypse

The Fermi Paradox is at the root of the Tinfoil Apocalypse:
"... because it is the nature of intelligent life to destroy itself

Technological civilizations may usually or invariably destroy themselves before or shortly after developing radio or space flight technology. Possible means of annihilation include nuclear war, biological warfare or accidental contamination, nanotechnological catastrophe, or a Malthusian catastrophe after the deterioration of a planet's ecosphere. This general theme is explored both in fiction and in mainstream scientific theorizing. Indeed, there are probabilistic arguments which suggest that humanity's end may occur sooner rather than later (see Doomsday argument). In 1966 Sagan and Shklovskii suggested that technological civilizations will tend to destroy themselves within a century of developing interstellar communicative capability or master their self-destructive tendencies and survive for billion-year timescales [17].
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My insight has been that the real problem is not that folks like us are likely to blow up the world but that we will be too careless letting advanced technology and WMD leak to primitive cultures who won't know enough to pull back from the brink.

Rafsanjani -- that would be one of the ex-presidents of Iran -- thinks Iran can win a nuclear war with Israel. Ahmedinejad thinks the Holocaust is a hoax that he needs to hasten the return of the 12th Imam. Oh, and Rafsanjani was the "moderate" candidate in the election that Ahmedinejad won ... and recently declared that he would sacrifice "half of Iran" to eliminate Israel.

What more can you possibly need to know?