Questions Of The Golden Hour

"But it comes down to this. It's no secret how the dynamics of social conflict works in the Arab world. There's a pattern to it that has been operating for centuries, and it's all about factions running out of steam (as expressed in terms of money and fighters). Iraqis understand this, which is why the Shia want the Sunni Arabs run out of the country. The United States understands this, and wants to avoid the ugly photo-opportunities that would accompany the flight of the Sunni Arabs. Many Iraqis believe the upcoming "Baghdad Pacification" campaign will only delay the Sunni expulsion. Pro-Iran groups in Iraq, and around the world, believe that disarming Shia death squads will only make Shia Arabs more vulnerable to Sunni Arab terrorism. About the only thing everyone can agree on is that peace will come when the Sunni Arabs are gone. Well, maybe.

The American belief is, that enough factions (there are several dozen factions) on all sides (there are over a dozen different wars going on) are beaten down sufficiently, they will accept a ceasefire and peace. That's not an end to the war, just as the 1990 Lebanese peace deal (ending fifteen years of violence) is about to be revoked. The Israelis and Palestinians have been going at it for decades. The Yemeni civil war is almost as old. Most Iraqis want peace, and the belief is that killing a few more of those who don't will make it happen, at least for a while." [ I continue to be pessimistic about our success during the Golden Hour -- even if we did a stellar job which we're nowhere near with the partial exception of the military. But I continue to support it. I don't have the taste for truly large scale wars -- surely you remember WWII? -- that the left does... -ed. ]