Thursday, February 14, 2008

The Red Line

From Hezb'allah's view point, a "red" line has been crossed and the organization will look for vengeance. The most reliable barometer of Hezb'allah's reaction to this will depend if Israel is somehow held accountable for this action. When Israel killed Hezb'allah Secretary General Abbas Musawi in February 1992, the Israeli Embassy in Buenos Aires, Argentina was destroyed a few weeks later. This 1992 attack was claimed by Hezb'allah's terrorist wing, the Islamic Jihad Organization, in retaliation for Musawi's death. If Mughniyah is indeed dead and Israel is held responsible, the clock is ticking. Hezb'allah will retaliate for this. Bank on it. If history provides any benchmark, look for a spectacular event in the very near future. As stated in my previous pieces, Hezb'allah has extensive contingency plans for this sort of occurrence and can put "steel on target" in short order.