The key, as I have written before (and here), lies not in greenhouse gas theory itself but in the theory that the earth's climate is dominated by positive feedback. This theory hypothesizes that small changes in temperature from greenhouse gas increases would be multiplied 3,4,5 times or more by positive feedback effects, from changes in atmospheric water vapor to changing surface albedo.
Let me emphasize again: The catastrophe results not from greenhouse gas theory, but from the theory of extreme climactic positive feedback. In a large sense, all the debate in the media is about the wrong thing! When was the last time you saw the words "positive feedback" in a media article about climate? Climate catastrophe is based on positive feedback. And yet...
So how confident are we in these feedback effects? Well, it turns
out we are not even sure of the sign! Given the importance of feedback to their forecasts, the treatment in the latest
IPCC report of feedback borders on the criminal. |
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