Monday, January 19, 2009

1.57?

Arnold Kling comments on the discussion among various Keynesians like Paul Krugman, Cristina Romer and Greg Mankiw on the "multipliers" of various forms of "stimulus":

"It is amazing what happens when you assume that you live in a linear world. You say that the multiplier for government spending is 1.57.

Really? Over what range? Think of it this way: at which level of additional government spending would the path of U.S. real GDP be the highest?

(a) $100 billion in spending above the baseline
(b) $1 trillion in spending above the baseline
(c) $100 trillion in spending above the baseline

If you use a constant multiplier of 1.57, the right answer is (c). Yet we know that this is not the right answer. At $100 trillion in additional government spending, the United States would be operating like Zimbabwe, with similar results."


Indeed, why not go for a quadrillion dollars? That would make all Americans multi-millionaires!