As an REO (foreclosed properties) valuation analyst I see first hand all over the country what is really happening. The real net to the investor is often less than 30% of UPB. I also see the trends daily in price drops, activity and new properties coming on the market. There were one million foreclosures in 2008 and easily 2.5M in 2009 based on current monthly foreclosure activity (ex. there were 250k notices filed in October alone. All of this real activity is evidence that the problem is worse than being let on. Values are likely to drop at least as much again as they already have in most markets except those that have already dropped 30% or more like Phoenix, Miami, San Fransisco and Los Vegas. This essentially means the housing market has already entered a full blown depression and we are maybe at the midpoint. The Feds cannot manipulate real supply and demand. Thats econ 101. Thank Bill Clinton for his "housing for everyone" mantra. |
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