Saturday, July 18, 2009

COTD: Ugly

Therefore, the diplomat's estimate Saturday that the Iranians will not risk confrontation with the West or chance an Israeli attack is completely unfounded, as are the theories that the Iranian leadership is in too shaky a position at home to go forward with a nuclear test. As soon as the test site is ready, supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will not be deterred from taking the nuclear plunge by the unrest at home, any more than grave illness has stopped Kim Jong-II flouting international prohibitions.

Still, the US and Europe will not fall out of their chairs because they have given the ayatollahs all the time they needed to attain a nuclear weapon."

I wonder if those protesting in Iran would understand a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. Does the political situation on the ground actually give the Mullahs some breathing room on chasing the bomb? Or must we do everything we can now to "meddle" before Ahmadinejad gives the green light?

Which of course raises the question of why the protesters are going all out now. Certainly Mousavi and Rafsanjani have the inside scoop on how close the scientist's are to a nuke. There are certainly plenty of reasons to question Rafsanjani's sanity regarding nukes but perhaps Mousavi is a different animal on this topic.

Mousavi's wife seems very interesting -- she might hold a sway of sanity over him about the disaster that could ensue from Israeli jitters. And could knowledge of this situation be emboldening the courage of the Iranian people to revolt?