Fantasy

clipped from seekingalpha.com The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) recently announced that they will be making downward benchmark revisions to past monthly nonfarm employment data that casts doubt on the validity of the recent figures as well. As we will explain, it is highly likely that substantially more jobs are now being lost than is currently reported. The BLS makes annual revisions to the previously announced payroll reports to account for job increases or decreases that were not picked up in the initial data. The main reason for the differences in the preliminary and final reports is the difficulty in getting numbers from the many small and medium sized business and accounting for new startups and firms going out of business. To make an educated guess at the data that they are missing, the BLS uses something called the ARIMA time series model (commonly called the birth/death model) they would have to reduce the estimate of total nonfarm employment by about 824,000