Sunday, December 20, 2009

Efficiency

Imagine that: more people insured and the deficit reduced. How do they do that? The short answer is over $1 trillion in Medicare cuts and tax increases.
First, the ten-year cost of insuring 27 million more people is $871 billion. But that money is not evenly spread over the ten years. The CBO does not make this part totally clear; that cost comes mostly after 2015. In those later years (mostly after Obama is no longer president, even if elected to a second term), the cost per year is easily $165 billion. Call it over $6,000 per person insured per year.

As a sanity check on that number, my current high-deductible plan costs $4,000 to cover my family of four, or $1,000 per person covered. A "Cadillac" comprehensive plan might be more like $16,000 for a family of four, or $4,000 per person per year. So the federal government will spend over six times as much as my high-deductible plan, and 50% more than even a generous comprehensive one. So much for efficiency.