Based on what he has seen, Ajami concludes that the tide has turned in Iraq and that the country is basically "working." The Kurds, he says, have what they want -- autonomy. They don't really want independence because, despite their oil reserves, they rely on oil revenue from the south.
The Shiites also have what they want -- the upper hand. They decisively and irreversibly won the Battle of Baghdad, and it's now their government. Naturally, therefore, they are heavily invested in the success of the state. In addition, as a matter of pride, they want to prove that they -- the much maligned and ridiculed Shia Arabs -- can govern. They realize that this means some accommodation for the Sunnis,
For their part, the Sunnis bet on al Qaeda and the powerful Sunni Arab states, and lost. As a result, they now are switching horses, working increasingly with the U.S. to defeat al Qaeda and with the Iraqi government upon which they rely for revenue.
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