Sunday, September 27, 2009

More Likely

We should also consider the possible impact on Russia's thinking of another recent, and insufficiently noted, development -- Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's visit to Russia. Naturally, we don't know what Netanyahu told the Russians. However, it's pretty clear that he didn't make this unprecedented trip just to chit-chat. One can easily imagine that Netanyahu said, or strongly intimated, that Israel is prepared to attack Iran unless Russia gets "back on side" (Tisdall's phrase) with respect to sanctions.

I'd like to think that Obama and Netanyahu engaged in concerted action -- Obama providing the carrot and Netanyahu the stick. Unfortunately, there is no reason to believe that the two did, or would, collaborate to that degree. It seems more likely that Netanyahu went to Russia precisely because he had lost any faith in the ability or willingness of the U.S. to influence Russian behavior.