Thursday, November 08, 2007

"Thin Slicing" Hillary

I guess the score's paid now. But what was the fascination with the tip? It was probably because voters value information gathered about a candidate during an unguarded or candid moment more highly than at prepared appearances. Packaged information about a candidate is heavily discounted. Maybe voters scan candidates the way radar operators look at targets heavily obscured by electronic countermeasures. They look for changes in the signal when the aspect varies. And at moments when the shields are down they look the hardest.

But the shields are up now. And we are back to wondering whether they were ever down.

Gladwell calls this "thin slicing" in "Blink". Experts learn to trust their quick unconscious reactions to key bits of data. In some degree, most people are "experts" at politics -- some more than others of course...