It’s instructive to recall that the Manhattan project — and the actual genesis of nuclear weapons in the world — was triggered by the mistaken belief that Hitler had a highly developed atomic bomb program. Albert Einstein and Leo Szilard raised the specter of a Nazi superweapon to Franklin Roosevelt.
After the Allies had captured Germany survey teams found that the Nazis were far short of being able to build an atomic bomb. In other words the US was exactly in the same position in 1945 as GWB had been with Saddam in 2004.
Intelligence gives answers about the future that are frequently wrong. That’s the nature of the beast. But a correct appreciation of the prospects often depends on which questions the decision maker doesn’t mind being wrong about. President Obama is now betting that he can reach a deal with Iranians.
Who knows but that the President might get away with it? But it’s interesting to consider whether he’s thought out the consequences of being wrong about it.
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